About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Showing posts with label bonds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bonds. Show all posts

Wednesday, 23 May 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

The dollar continues to surge and emerging market currencies like the Lira and the PESO are weakening. Italian credit spreads continue to widen and a broad risk off trade is emerging. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today: 

Wednesday, 16 May 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

Global risk are piling up off late. Whether it be surging US bond yields or the surging dollar that has arisen out of a collapsing Euro following the Italian elections, risks to global asset classes are on the rise. The prospects for a waterfall decline similar to 1987 are fast rising. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Wednesday, 9 May 2018

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Wednesday, 2 May 2018

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Wednesday, 25 April 2018

Bond Yields and Asset Allocation

While the current focus is on US 10 year bond yields pushing through 3% what is more important is the implication of surging bond yields for asset allocation decisions. First a look at a chart comparing 10 year bond yields to the earnings yield on the S and P 500. Thanks to the relentless QE's from the Fed the earnings yield is still well above the 10 year bond yield though the differential has narrowed considerably of late:

Earnings Yield Vs Bond Yield
data source: multpl.com, St. Louis Fed

Next a look at a chart comparing 2 year bond yields to the dividend yield on the S and P 500. After a very long period of time 2 year bond yields have now eclipsed the dividend yield on the S and P 500. Thus risk free assets are going to look increasingly attractive when compared to risky assets like stocks if yields surge further:

Dividend Yield Vs Bond Yield
data source: multpl.com, St. Louis Fed

Thursday, 2 November 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Tuesday, 31 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Thursday, 26 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Tuesday, 24 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:


Thursday, 12 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:



Tuesday, 10 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Wednesday, 4 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Monday, 2 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Thursday, 28 September 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Wednesday, 27 September 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Tuesday, 26 September 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Monday, 25 September 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Friday, 22 September 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Thursday, 21 September 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Wednesday, 20 September 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.