Bear Market ETF's to Consider for 2017 and Beyond

Early Signs of a Deflationary Collapse?

Some interesting developments are playing out in long term charts that make me feel comprehensively bearish over the long term:

a) Firstly a massive rising wedge  has formed on the long term S and P 500 chart. This is much bigger than that observed in 2000 or 2008 and has started to break to the downside which could have profound consequences. A major bear market could ensue post the break. Chart courtesy StockTwits.com:

b) Secondly Margin Debt is at record levels and has eclipsed levels seen during the maniacal peaks of 2000 and 2008. Once the above rising wedge breaks you could have a rush for the exit triggered by margin calls. Chart courtesy advisorperspectives.com:

c) Thirdly despite multiple dosages of Quantitative easing (#QE) from global central banks the velocity of money is below the levels observed during the Great Depression. This implies that changes in money supply will have little impact on the economy going forward. Further QE's are likely but won't really stimulate the global economy. Chart source armstrongeconomics.com.

The above developments taken together with ongoing bear markets in several key asset classes  make for a deflationary collapse increasingly likely in the not too distant future.

Why I am Ultra Bearish Long Term from Rajveer Rawlin

Deflationary collapse up coming? http://t.co/wiJoi1PQfi pic.twitter.com/Z7otAmPEF5

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 7, 2015

The Very Scary Rising Wedge on the US Stock Market S and P 500 Index

This is a chart originally highlighted on Stocktwits.com, the rising wedge on the S and P 500 with eerie parallels to 2000 and 2008. What is worth noting here is the current rising wedge is much bigger than that observed in 2000 or 2008. The consequences could be severe as and when the break occurs and could trigger a major bear market:

Bear Market Lessons from History

While the financial media tends to be absolutely infatuated with stocks hitting new highs every day, we would do well to pay attention to some ongoing bear markets, Charts are courtesy yahoo finance and marketwatch.com:

1) Japanese stocks continue to languish under the effects of deflation following a well over 26 year old bear market, down over 45% from the highs set in 1989.



2) Despite some great innovation out of the U.S from the likes of Apple, Google, Facebook e.t.c the #NASDAQ continues to remain in a 15 year bear market near its highs set in 2000.



3) Despite going parabolic yet again, Chinese stocks continue to remain in a 7 year bear market down well over 50% from the highs set in 2008.

4) US bank stocks are entering a 7 year bear market despite all the #QE money and super low interest rates down over 30% from their highs set in 2008.



5) The #Euro is also in a 7 year bear market down over 25% against the dollar from it's highs set in 2008.



6) #Gold and gold ETF's continue to be in bear markets down well over 35% from their highs set in 2008.



7) The more recent casualty #oil and oil ETF's are down well over 60% from their highs set in 2008.




It is well worth noting that it is no strange coincidence that there are major bear markets in several key asset classes and despite recent bear market rallies caused by the FED's QE for ever policies the hibernating bear is all set to emerge with a vengeance.

Bear market lessons from history from Rajveer Rawlin

Bear Market Lessons From History http://t.co/TcQy3nOE0r pic.twitter.com/wNba6Jh5Ys

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 7, 2015